3 Things: Commitment Device Tokens, One Medical for Pediatrics, Inactivewear
Happy Sunday and a very warm welcome to all the new subscribers! I’m thrilled and honored to have you as readers and truly appreciate your thoughts and feedback 🙏. Each edition of 3 Things will contain a dive into 3 rabbit holes I’ve found myself going down recently. Subscribe to get each week’s edition straight to your inbox and if you enjoy it, please share (I suck at self-promotion so can use your help)! This past week I’ve been thinking a lot about:
Commitment Device Tokens
One Medical for Pediatrics
Inactivewear
1. Commitment Device Tokens
It’s about to be that time of year again— the time for New Year’s resolutions. January 1st marks the date when the majority of people around the world make pledges to begin working out, eat better, start that podcast, or achieve some other goal. After just 2 weeks into the year, the vast majority of people have already given up on their resolutions and studies have shown that a whopping 80% will not achieve their goals. One mechanism to help keep you on track is the concept of a commitment device which helps people avoid akrasia, a fun new word I just learned that means “acting against one’s better judgement”. A commitment device, which comes from the fields of economics and game theory, has two primary components. First, they are voluntary choices that help align future decisions with intended outcomes. Second, they create consequences for not acting in accordance with the desired course of actions. The general idea is that in a “cold state” or with a “cool head” you make decisions to counteract behavior in “hot states”. One classic example of a commitment device is when Odysseus binds himself to the mast of his ship and his sailors put wax in their ears to resist the sirens song.
Some examples of areas where people use commitment devices are exercising more, eating better, increasing productivity, reducing consumption, saving money, or improving sustainability/environmental impact. Some people today make bets/pledges with friends around measurable things like weight loss where they commit to donating money to a cause they abhor if they don’t hit their goal. They might give their friend the money to act as an escrow of sorts and either return or disperse the funds based off of the outcome. What if we added tokens and tokenomics to the mix where measurable goals are set, apps/wearables/etc are connected and tokens are purchased and staked to various goals. Smart contracts would execute based off of the data or an oracle which can determine the outcome. Given that everything is public on a blockchain, there would be another accountability layer by creating a dashboard that anyone can check and see how you’re doing.
2. One Medical for Pediatrics
Technically called 1Life Healthcare, One Medical was founded in 2007 offering membership-based primary care services. They have over 100 locations across the country where members can get same day appointments to see a general practitioner, get lab services, or do a telemedicine visit. They pioneered a cost-effective alternative to concierge medicine which has become very popular over the last two decades among the wealthy who are willing to pay out of pocket for access to a doctor on retainer. The One Medical model involves a $199 annual subscription fee and the vast majority of subscriptions are paid for by employers as a benefit. As of Q3 2021, the company has ~715,000 members and is on track to do ~$600M in net revenue this year. They raised $535M over 12 years and went public in 2020, currently trading at a ~3.3B market cap.
As a new parent, I’ve learned that there is literally an unending number of questions and concerns that you’ll have about your kid. They change every week, which solves some problems and brings on new ones. There is also a running joke that kids always get sick over the weekends when pediatrician offices are closed. One Medical recently launched One Medical Kids but has almost no locations that offer services for babies and even the ones that do seem to have only one pediatrician on staff. Good luck trying to get seen same day or on off hours with that patient:physician ratio! In major cities, a competitor could offer concierge pediatrics where parents can get access to a pediatrician or a pediatric RN 24/7. Have an urgent issue on saturday night? Not a problem, you can bring your little nugget in right away and get seen by a doctor or immediately get on a telemedicine visit with someone who can answer your questions and help guide towards the best course of action. While One Medical started out mostly DTC, the majority of their revenue today comes from employers who offer the service to their employees so this could also turn into a corporate benefit.
3. Inactive Wear
The wardrobe choice of the masses for the past 2 years has absolutely been “activewear”. Even before the pandemic, the trend towards athleisure was clearly taking off. Fast forward to 2020 and when you aren't going to an office, restaurants, or basically any other establishments and social engagements, function definitely trumps fashion. The result has been stocks like Nike, Lululemon, and Gap (which owns Athleta) soaring. Activewear is already a $500B market and now even traditional retailers like Target and Nordstrom are shifting focus to these product lines. Target reached $1B in activewear sales in 2020 and Nordstrom launched a new line called “comfort work clothes”.
Activewear has been a meme of the pandemic but most people purchasing these clothes are absolutely intending on using them for lounging. A few years ago, a video went viral mocking women who don activewear to do non-active things. It was so funny because it was 1000% true. Since that video was created, dozens of new activewear brands have become incredibly popular like Gymshark (valued at $12.B), Vouri, Outdoor Voices, Alo Yoga, Sweaty Betty (acquired for $410M), and MANY more. It’s easier than ever to spin up an apparel brand and there has been a ton of innovation in materials and fabrics. Add the ability to access any target audience across many social media channels and there is an opportunity to create a new brand around the concept of “inactivewear”. Cater to all of the people who want the look, feel, and comfort of athleisure but have zero intention of using it to work out. Find a manufacturer who works with other new brands, set up a Shopify store, and make humorous viral videos/social media campaigns and own the term “inactivewear”.
That’s all for today! If you have thoughts, comments, or want to get in touch, find me on Twitter at @ezelby and if you enjoyed this, please share with a friend or two!
~ Elaine